Lens 1 — Progress vs Promise

The Progress Tracker is the first of six analytical lenses on the Vanderbilt Terminal. Its function is straightforward: measure what Abu Dhabi and Bahrain promised in 2008 against what they have delivered by 2025.

Both vision documents contain quantified targets. Abu Dhabi’s 146-page Economic Vision 2030 specifies GDP growth rates, diversification percentages, employment ratios, trade balance targets, and production capacity objectives. Bahrain’s 26-page document is less numerically precise but establishes clear directional commitments — doubling household income, creating high-wage private sector employment, achieving fiscal sustainability.

This section tracks every measurable KPI against original baselines and targets, assigning one of four status designations.

Status Methodology

On Track — Current trajectory suggests the target will be met or substantially achieved by the stated deadline. Progress is consistent and structural barriers to achievement are manageable.

Ahead — Target has already been met or exceeded ahead of the stated deadline. Performance has surpassed original projections.

At Risk — Some progress has been made but the current trajectory falls short of the target. Achievement by the deadline is possible but requires acceleration or favourable external conditions.

Off Track — Current trajectory indicates the target will not be met by the stated deadline. Structural barriers, adverse trends, or insufficient progress make achievement unlikely without fundamental course correction.

Data Sources

Assessments draw on official statistical publications from the Statistics Centre - Abu Dhabi (SCAD), the Bahrain Information and eGovernment Authority, the Central Bank of Bahrain, the UAE Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre, the International Monetary Fund Article IV consultations, World Bank development indicators, OPEC production data, and financial disclosures from ADNOC, ADIA, Mubadala, ADQ, Mumtalakat, and other relevant entities.

Where official data is unavailable or significantly delayed, assessments incorporate estimates from credible institutional sources including the IMF, World Bank, and relevant industry bodies. All estimates are identified as such.

Country Dashboards

• Abu Dhabi Progress Tracker — Eight KPIs spanning GDP growth, economic diversification, trade balance, national employment, oil production, fiscal reform, financial markets, and workforce productivity.
• Bahrain Progress Tracker — Six KPIs covering household income, GDP growth, private sector employment, fiscal sustainability, government efficiency, and financial sector competitiveness.

Scorecards

• Abu Dhabi Overall Scorecard — Consolidated assessment across all tracked KPIs.
• Bahrain Overall Scorecard — Consolidated assessment across all tracked KPIs.
• Head-to-Head Comparison — Side-by-side progress evaluation. Who is executing better against their own commitments?