Target
Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030 set a target of eliminating the non-oil trade deficit by 2028. The baseline was stark: in 2006, Abu Dhabi’s non-oil trade deficit stood at approximately $21 billion. The emirate was importing far more in goods and services outside the hydrocarbon sector than it was exporting.
Achieving trade balance in the non-oil sector would require either a dramatic expansion of non-oil exports, a significant reduction in non-oil imports, or some combination of both. The vision’s broader diversification strategy implied that new non-oil industries — petrochemicals, metals, aerospace, pharmaceuticals — would become export-generating sectors, while import substitution in areas like food production, construction materials, and manufactured goods would reduce the import bill.
The 2028 deadline — two years before the broader 2030 horizon — underscored the priority the vision placed on trade balance as a measure of genuine economic self-sufficiency rather than oil-subsidised consumption.
Current Status
Abu Dhabi’s non-oil trade deficit has narrowed since 2006 but remains substantial. Precise emirate-level trade data is more limited than national UAE figures, but available evidence indicates that the non-oil deficit, while reduced as a share of GDP, continues to run in the billions of dollars annually.
Several factors have contributed to partial improvement. The expansion of downstream petrochemical exports through Borouge and other ADNOC downstream entities has added significant non-oil export value — though the classification of petrochemicals as non-oil is debatable. Aluminium production through Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), in which Mubadala holds a 50 percent stake, generates export revenues. Re-export activity through Khalifa Port and Abu Dhabi’s free zones contributes to the non-oil trade account.
On the import side, however, Abu Dhabi’s rapid development has sustained high import demand. Construction materials for mega-projects, consumer goods for a growing population, food imports for an arid emirate with limited agricultural capacity, and technology imports for an economy still building its industrial base all contribute to persistent non-oil import demand.
Analysis
The zero non-oil trade deficit target by 2028 was among the most structurally ambitious goals in the vision document. Achieving trade balance in the non-oil sector would require Abu Dhabi to develop export-competitive industries at a scale sufficient to offset the import requirements of a rapidly developing, consumption-oriented economy in a desert environment.
The structural barriers are significant. Abu Dhabi imports virtually all of its food. It imports most consumer goods. It imports the capital equipment and technology required for its industrial development. It imports construction materials for infrastructure projects. These import categories are driven by geography, climate, population growth, and development requirements that cannot be fundamentally altered by trade policy.
On the export side, Abu Dhabi has developed new export-generating sectors — petrochemicals, aluminium, and re-exports — but these have not grown at rates sufficient to close the trade gap. The emirate’s non-oil export base remains narrow relative to the breadth of its import requirements.
The 2028 deadline is now effectively past, and the zero-deficit target has not been achieved. Even with a more generous interpretation of the timeline, reaching non-oil trade balance by 2030 appears unlikely without a fundamental restructuring of the emirate’s import profile or a dramatic expansion of non-oil export capacity.
Data Sources
Statistics Centre - Abu Dhabi (SCAD) external trade reports. UAE Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre trade data. Abu Dhabi Ports trade throughput publications. IMF UAE Article IV Consultations.
Assessment: Off Track
The target of zero non-oil trade deficit by 2028 has not been achieved. While the deficit has narrowed from its 2006 baseline and new export-generating sectors have developed, the structural import requirements of a rapidly developing desert economy have maintained a significant non-oil trade gap. The Off Track designation reflects both the missed 2028 deadline and the implausibility of achieving trade balance in the non-oil sector by 2030 under current conditions.